Up to Three Billion People Will Live in a Hotter World by 2070

Hotter World, Warmer Days, Less Food

Worrying about climate change and understanding the problem in-depth are two entirely different. Many of us do not perceive clearly what is changing and what the future holds. The topic transcends vast fields of study such as environment, weather, energy, agriculture, social justice and more.

Thousands of scientists are working on climate change issues, trying to quantify this phenomenon and understand what scenarios it may present.

Only a small portion of this research reaches the mainstream media, and often that, too, ends up in an oblivious corner of the vast information world.

This article is about one such study that can provide us with a clearer (scarier, too) picture.

This study was published on May 4, 2020, in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.

It is titled, ‘Future of the Human Climate Niche’. It imparts significant insight into the niche temperature where humans have lived through centuries and tries to gauge how climate change will impact that. Chi Xu, Timothy A. Kohler, Timothy M. Lenton, Jens-Christian Svenning, and Marten Scheffer are the authors of this research paper. 

What does this study tell us that we do not know already? How is it important to our lives?

The study is about the last 6000 years of human life on Earth.

The study probes the annual temperature of this period. The scientists arrived at a mean temperature of around 13 degrees Celsius.

In other words, in the last 6000 years, the average temperature that humans found themselves in has been 13 degrees Celsius.

What is the meaning of this finding? It means that humans, as a species, are more used to cold climates.

Another inference of this research project is this- over the last 6000 years, the above-cited average ambient temperature did not vary much.

Now, the question is whether this means the temperature is about to move higher owing to climate change. Yes, say the authors of this study, and we know from our individual and collective experiences that it is already changing.

The study reveals that 1-3 billion people could find themselves outside the comfortable mean temperature and in an unbearably hotter world, in a short time of 50 years.

The implication is that a huge portion of the world's population will experience intolerable heat by 2070.

The higher temperature will not merely be about having hotter days and nights.

The most alarming part of the problem is that almost all the edible and non-edible crops we cultivate can thrive only in a similar temperature range.

Plants are more sensitive to varying climate conditions than us. The consequences of about 3 billion people experiencing a warmer climate will wreak havoc on our food security and self-reliance.

Climate-Induced Disparities

The researchers prepared a map based on the projected geographic suitability of different regions for human habitation.

This map shows that major parts of Africa, South America, and Asia face the threat of becoming uninhabitable.

This finding warns about a huge climate refugee crisis. When these three continents turn into unlivable ovens, where will the millions of people who live on them go?

Governments will be pressed into identifying regions that would be worst affected.

They will have to prepare plans to ensure that the people of these regions can survive and have access to drinking water and food.

2070 is just 50 years away. A wake-up call of great urgency has been raised.

Another unwanted result of the temperature change will be resource-related conflicts and mass migrations.

The study examines the Syrian conflict and points out that it is partially caused by the drought in the fertile crescent- the worst drought in the past 900 years.

When crops fail consistently, when there is acute scarcity of food and water, people are forced to migrate.

Climate migrants are already a tangible social issue in the world. The authors of the new research also warn that the most affected populations and communities will be the least privileged in terms of development and wealth.

A Hotter World: Who will be the Most Affected?

The study compiles some important facts about how the warming impacts different demographic groups differently.

For example, it points out that 50% of the world's population depends on small-holding farming. One key input these farmers invest in the farming system is their physical labour.

So, it is imaginable how miserable these farm labourers will be when the temperature rises.

These labourers ' physical labouring capacity, mood, mental health, and behaviour will be severely affected.

Small-holding farmers do not usually employ labour from outside but work themselves in the fields.

In tropical countries, these farmers have already started limiting their working hours to mornings and evenings because of excessive atmospheric heat.

Production and productivity are naturally impacted. A temperature rise will hamper food exports.

This will affect the economy of the producer countries and consumption on the receiving end.

An example that surfaced is India facing grain scarcity and banning wheat and rice exports.

The co-occurrence of different natural calamities, droughts, landslides, and floods caused by climate change is a significant cause of low production.

Once we quantify the labour hours lost due to the reluctance to work and fatigue caused by excess atmospheric heat, it will be time to measure how much these factors contribute to a production decline.

The study we are discussing here also talks about the rising mortality in the world caused by heat waves.

India is especially prone to this phenomenon.

This has to be understood by looking at the data showing a 55% rise in heatwave deaths in India between 2000 and 2004 and between 2017 and 2021 (Lancet study).

In 2021 alone, India lost 167.2 billion labour hours to excessive atmospheric heat.

To Foresee the Future is the First Step Towards Changing It

This study need not fill us with a frightening gloom. It empowers us to identify and understand the issue at hand.

It even helps us to know where the intervention is needed most.

We need to identify these regions and improve the microclimate and sustainability by planting trees, establishing water conservation protocols, developing the human resource potential for alternative income sources, reinforcing the sustainable farming infrastructure, and building awareness.

However, the sad fact remains that a world mired in disparities, economic greed, and a politics insensitive to human suffering rarely manifests such foresightedness, not to mention the will to act.

References

Future of the Human Climate Niche, A study published on May 4, 2020, in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, and authored by Chi Xu, Timothy A. Kohler, Timothy M. Lenton, Jens-Christian Svenning, and Marten Scheffer. https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020/04/28/1910114117

India Heatwave: High Temperatures Killing More Indians Now, Lancet Study Finds, 26 October 2022, bbc.com